F-F三因子资产定价模型的扩展及其实证研究

针对中国证券市场的特征,本文引入会计指标市盈率、技术指标换手率,对标准F-F三因子模型进行了不同层面的改进。实证结果表明,标准F-F三因子定价模型基本能解释中证100样本股相应组合的周回报率,但效果不是很好;换手率高低对组合收益率的解释能力并不优于标准模型,但换手率与市盈率同时进入模型,却能有效提高周收益率的解释,是一个基本适合中国股市的资产定价模型。     

基于贝塞尔曲线的中、美、日利率期限结构静态研究

利率期限结构曲线的静态拟合是指,使用不同类型的数学函数近似地描述整条利率期限结构曲线。当前最流行的静态拟合方法是利用B样条曲线来拟合利率曲线。然而,该方法往往受制于阶数的限制,而仅仅停留在3阶。本文通过利用B样条曲线的特殊形式——Bezier曲线拟合了中国、美国、日本国债利率的期限结构曲线,获得了一种可以升阶的拟合方法。同时,将复杂的曲线拟合计算,简化为对散点的聚类分析,取得了中国利率期限结构的模型。     

Optimal investment strategies in an international economy with stochastic interest rates

We investigate how investors should optimally choose to invest in a dynamically complete international market. We find closed-form solutions for the optimal investment strategy and for the wealth loss an investor suffers from not investing internationally. Theoretically, we show that the gain from international investment is due to the speculative investment only, and why it is important for an investor from a large economy to invest in a small economy. In a numerical example we compare the wealth losses investors from Denmark and the U.S. suffer due to home bias.     

Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics

The balance of payments is an accounting identity. Many wonder how the current and capital accounts, which add up to zero, can influence exchange rates. This paper shows how payment flows arising from balance of payments imbalances affect the demands for different currencies in the foreign exchange market over time. Based on a dynamical system approach, the paper demonstrates how international payments evolve depending on the joint dynamic behaviour of different balance of payments components. It finds that international payments and exchange rates interact in fundamentally different ways depending on whether a country restricts its capital inflows and outflows, whether capital flows are accommodating or autonomous and whether the exchange rate is fixed, flexible or, say, governed by a crawling peg. Empirical evidence from major industrial countries as well as from countries hit by currency crises support the paper's theoretical predictions.     

A good deal online: The Impacts of acquisition and transaction value on E-satisfaction and E-loyalty

Relying on Thaler's exchange theory, this research examines the unique effects of perceived transaction and acquisition values on consumer e-satisfaction and e-loyalty in an e-commerce setting, along with the moderating role of product/ service category. Overall, consumers' perceptions of transaction value lead to their e-dissatisfaction. Hence, obtaining a good deal does not have the same meaning and influence depending on the type of buying trip (exploratory or goal-directed). These results confirm Thaler's exchange theory's usefulness to analyzing the impact of perceived value on e-satisfaction and e-loyalty. Additionally, in a managerial perspective, this research underlines the importance of adapting promotional strategies to online contexts, since online purchase experience improves when there is an alignment between the customer's goals and the e-tailer’s online offering.     

THE INFLUENCE OF FUNDAMENTALS ON EXCHANGE RATES: FINDINGS FROM ANALYSES OF NEWS EFFECTS

Abstract As we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market, we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research. The first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s (see, for example, Dornbusch). Almost at the same time Meese and Rogoff published their influential paper, revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk. This finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field. The eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re‐establishment of the raison d’être of exchange rate economics. This work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal, i.e. shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research. Thus, its major findings are, first, fundamental news does matter, whereas non‐fundamental news matters to a lesser degree. Second, news influences exchange rates via two separated channels, i.e. incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow. Third, with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time.     

Combining forecasts: some results on exchange and interest rates

The aim of this work is to investigate whether the combination of forecasts plays an important role in the improvement of forecast accuracy Particular attention is paid to: (a) the methods of forecasting (the methods compared are neural networks, fuzzy logic, GARCH models, switching regime and chaotic dynamics); (b) combining the forecasts provided by the different methods. This work has also the aim of revising a short-term econometric forecast using a longer-term forecast. The revision process usually runs the opposite way (revision is made on a longer-term forecast using a short-term one to reflect the current available information, but it is not excluded that it is possible to proceed as described above. Daily data from the financial market is used. Some empirical applications on exchange and interest rates are given.     

中小企业内地创业板上市的财务战略筹划

本文通过对中小企业财务的核心要素进行系统分析,结合创业板对上市企业财务上的具体要求,提出中小企业在筹备创业板上市的过程中的财务战略筹划方案。     

Kalecki on money and finance

It is argued that Kalecki had a greater appreciation of the role of the monetary sector than has been generally recognized, and that Kalecki presented ideas which can be seen as now embedded in the structuralist post Keynesian analysis of endogenous money and in the circuitist approach. Six key features of Kalecki's monetary analysis are identified. The paper outlines Kalecki's dismissal of the ‘Pigou effect’ and the ‘Keynes effect’, and then discussion the relationship between the ‘principle of increasing risk’ and the nature of the supply of credit. It discusses interest determination in Kalecki's writings and the manner in which he distinguished different types of money.     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.